Long-term species-level observations indicate the critical role of soil moisture in regulating China's grassland productivity relative to phenological and climatic factors

As a sensitive indicator of climate change and a key variable in ecosystem surface-atmosphere interaction, vegetation phenology, and the growing season length, as well as climatic factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) are widely recognized as key factors influencing vegetation productivity. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of soil moisture in regulating grassland productivity. However, the relative importance of phenology, climatic factors, and soil moisture to plant species-level productivity across China's grasslands remains poorly understood. Here, we use nearly four decades (1981 to 2018) of in situ species-level observations from 17 stations distributed across grasslands in China to examine the key mechanisms that control grassland productivity. The results reveal that soil moisture is the strongest determinant of the interannual variability in grassland productivity. In contrast, the spring/autumn phenology, the length of vegetation growing season, and climate factors have relatively minor impacts. Generally, annual aboveground biomass increases by 3.9 to 25.3 g∙m² (dry weight) with a 1 % increase in growing season mean soil moisture across the stations. Specifically, the sensitivity of productivity to moisture in wetter and colder environments (e.g., alpine meadows) is significantly higher than that in drier and warmer environments (e.g., temperate desert steppes). In contrast, the sensitivity to the precipitation of the latter is greater than the former. The effect of soil moisture is the most pronounced during summer. Dominant herb productivity is more sensitive to soil moisture than the others. Moreover, multivariate regression analyses show that the primary climatic factors and their attributions to variations in soil moisture differ among the stations, indicating the interaction between climate and soil moisture is very complex. Our study highlights the interspecific difference in the soil moisture dependence of grassland productivity and provides guidance to climate change impact assessments in grassland ecosystems.