Long-Term Monitoring of Surface Water Dynamics and Analysis of Its Driving Mechanism: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin

In-depth insights into the profound impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources are garnered through the dynamic changes in surface water, a crucial aspect of effective water resource management and the preservation of aquatic ecosystems. This paper introduces an innovative approach employing the random forest algorithm for the systematic extraction and monitoring of surface water at large regional or national scales. This method integrates spectral bands, spectral indices, and digital elevation model data, offering a novel perspective on this critical task. A data-filling model is proposed to mitigate the impact of missing data due to cloud cover. Leveraging the capabilities of the Google Earth Engine (GEE), detailed information on surface water dynamics during the rainy and dry seasons in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from 1991 to 2021 is extracted using Landsat time series imagery. The analysis encompasses spatial-temporal variation characteristics and trends, with a specific focus on the intricate interplay between the areal extent of surface water and hydro-meteorological factors in each sub-basin of the YRB. Importantly, this includes considerations of potential groundwater contributions to surface water. Key findings from our research include: (1) Achieving a remarkable overall classification accuracy of 0.96 ± 0.03 in obtaining reliable surface water datasets with the support of GEE. (2) Identifying significant trends, such as a noteworthy increase in rainy season surface water bodies (+248.0 km²·yr⁻¹) and a concerning decrease in surface ice/snow cover during both rainy and dry seasons, with change rates of −39.7 km²·yr⁻¹ and −651.3 km²·yr⁻¹, respectively. (3) Uncovering the driving mechanisms behind these changes, revealing positive correlations between the areal extent of rainy season surface water bodies and precipitation, as well as negative correlations between surface ice/snow cover area and average surface skin temperature. It is crucial to note that these driving factors exhibit variation among secondary river systems, underscoring the complexity of surface water dynamics. Furthermore, comparative analyses with existing surface water products are conducted, contributing to a deeper understanding of the advantages and uncertainties inherent in our proposed extraction method. The proposed method for large-scale surface water extraction not only enhances the monitoring of spatio-temporal surface water dynamics in the YRB but also provides valuable insights for the sustainable utilization and protection of water resources, considering the potential role of groundwater in supplementing surface water.