Larval transport pathways from three prominent sand lance habitats in the Gulf of Maine

Northern sand lance (Ammodytes dubius) are among the most critically important forage fish throughout the Northeast US shelf. Despite their ecological importance, little is known about the larval transport of this species. Here, we use otolith microstructure analysis to estimate hatch and settlement dates of sand lance and then use these measurements to parametrize particle tracking experiments to assess the source–sink dynamics of three prominent sand lance habitats in the Gulf of Maine: Stellwagen Bank, the Great South Channel, and Georges Bank. Our results indicate the pelagic larval duration of northern sand lance lasts about 2 months (range: 50–84 days) and exhibit a broad range of hatch and settlement dates. Forward and backward particle tracking experiments show substantial interannual variability, yet suggest transport generally follows the north to south circulation in the Gulf of Maine region. We find that Stellwagen Bank is a major source of larvae for the Great South Channel, while the Great South Channel primarily serves as a sink for larvae from Stellwagen Bank and Georges Bank. Retention is likely the primary source of larvae on Georges Bank. Retention within both Georges Bank and Stellwagen Bank varies interannually in response to changes in local wind events, while the Great South Channel only exhibited notable retention in a single year. Collectively, these results provide a framework to assess population connectivity among these sand lance habitats, which informs the species' recruitment dynamics and impacts its vulnerability to exploitation.