TY - JOUR
T1 - Landscape prediction of Yangtze estuarine wetlands in 2020 under different scenarios
AU - Li, Xi Zhi
AU - Li, Xiu Zhen
AU - Ren, Lin Jing
AU - Shen, Fang
AU - Huang, Xing
AU - Yan, Zhong Zheng
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015, China Environmental Science Press. All rights reserved.
PY - 2015/3/25
Y1 - 2015/3/25
N2 - Based on the analysis of classified remote sensing images of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands of 1980–2010, landscapes of the wetlands (Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha) in 2020 under three different scenarios (ecological protection, current trend and intensified reclamation) were predicted using the Dyna-CLUE and CA models. Results show that by 2020, the total area of the wetlands outside the dike will have increased by 56 and 44 km2, and decreased by 7 km2, respectively, under the three different scenarios. The area ratios of Phragmites/Spartina/Scirpus will have changed from 36: 38: 26 to 46: 34: 20, 38: 38: 24 and 38: 37: 25, respectively, by 2020. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the area of the estuarine wetlands in Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha will have increased by 7, 43 and 6 km2, respectively. Conversely, under the scenario of current trend or intensified reclamation, the area of estuarine wetlands will have been on a declining trend. The results of this study can provide some reference for the proper utilization and protection of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands.
AB - Based on the analysis of classified remote sensing images of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands of 1980–2010, landscapes of the wetlands (Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha) in 2020 under three different scenarios (ecological protection, current trend and intensified reclamation) were predicted using the Dyna-CLUE and CA models. Results show that by 2020, the total area of the wetlands outside the dike will have increased by 56 and 44 km2, and decreased by 7 km2, respectively, under the three different scenarios. The area ratios of Phragmites/Spartina/Scirpus will have changed from 36: 38: 26 to 46: 34: 20, 38: 38: 24 and 38: 37: 25, respectively, by 2020. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the area of the estuarine wetlands in Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha will have increased by 7, 43 and 6 km2, respectively. Conversely, under the scenario of current trend or intensified reclamation, the area of estuarine wetlands will have been on a declining trend. The results of this study can provide some reference for the proper utilization and protection of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands.
KW - CA model
KW - Dyna-CLUE
KW - Landscape prediction
KW - Yangtze Estuarine wetlands
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85042499411
U2 - 10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2015.02.008
DO - 10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2015.02.008
M3 - 文章
AN - SCOPUS:85042499411
SN - 1673-4831
VL - 33
SP - 188
EP - 196
JO - Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment
JF - Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment
IS - 2
ER -