Identifying gaps in nature reserves by integrating future ecosystem service priority areas

Context: Incorporating ecosystem services (ES) into nature reserves (NR) planning has significant impacts on the environment and human wellbeing. However, the effects of uncertain future socio-environmental dynamics on ES conservation and the gaps in existing NR are unclear. Objective: The present study aims to integrate multiple ES dynamics into future NR planning and quantify the gaps with existing NR. Methods: We first presented a methodological scheme to assess ES dynamics under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) in China during from 2015 to 2100. We then employed a representativeness–vulnerability framework to identify priority conservation areas within the YREB. Results: Except for SSP1-1.9 and SSP4-3.4, all scenarios projected an increase in ecosystem service value (ESV). SSP3-7.0 and SSP4-3.4 were expected to induce the largest ESV changes, with increases of 6.35% and decreases of 6.08%, respectively, during 2015–2100. By integrating future ESV changes into NR planning, we identified priority conservation areas at different time points from 2015 to 2100. Through overlay analysis, we derived bottom-line conservation areas across multiple scenarios and timeframes. The identified bottom-line conservation areas are mainly distributed in eastern Sichuan, western Guizhou, eastern Hubei, and southern Jiangsu, covering 8.62% of the YREB. Notably, only 4.81% of the existing NR areas in the YREB overlap with the identified bottom-line conservation areas. Conclusions: Our analyses reveal gaps between the existing NR and the potential future priority conservation areas in the YREB when considering multiple ES. We emphasize the need to define bottom-line conservation areas based on ES dynamics under various scenarios to address future uncertainties and complexities.