How does environmental governance influence terrestrial ecosystem service values? A case study based on the SD-PLUS model

Evaluating ecosystem service value (ESV) plays a crucial role in supporting decision-making, which land −use is one of the key drivers in ESV. However, the influence of policy factors on land-use changes is often overlooked or oversimplified in ESV assessments. In this study, taking Nanping City as a case, we incorporated policy factors related to environmental governance into the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), and established the Conventional Development Scenario (CDS) and the Economic Development Scenario (EDS) as controls to evaluate the impact of environmental governance on ESV with System Dynamics (SD)–Patch-generating Land-Use Simulation (PLUS) model. The hot spot analysis was conducted subsequently. The results indicated that the ESVs in CDS, EDS and EPS were 217.317, 219.732 and 220.522 billion yuan in 2030, and the changes from 2020 were −1.43%, −0.34% and 0.02%, respectively. The conversion of forestland into cropland dominated in CDS, whereas the conversion of cropland into forestland dominated in EPS. In EPS, the area of ESV cold spots decreased the most relative to 2020. These findings underscore the need for governance strategies that move beyond traditional area-based conservation. We propose spatially tiered ecological markets, industry-ecology integration, and ESV-weighted performance audits to better align policies with regional ecological capacities. Rather than focusing solely on the magnitude of ESV gains, this study highlights the importance of spatial functionality and institutional coherence, offering new perspectives for socioecological modernization in land-use planning.