High-speed rail and distribution of economic activities: Evidence from prefecture-level cities in China

Creating new subcenters around suburban transport nodes is a popular policy choice for urban development. In this study, we investigate how high-speed rail stations reshape economics activities in less populous cities. Employing night-light data at the pixel level, we demonstrate that the establishment of a new station has resulted in a flattened economic density gradient for Chinese prefecture-level cities. Notably, however, the gravitational core of urban economic activity does not exhibit a discernible shift towards the station area. This evidence suggests that the station area has not formed into a new subcenter; instead, it might have contributed to urban sprawl. We show that the formation of a new subcenter is tied to several pivotal determinants, which include the level of urban agglomeration, the distance to the original urban center, and government investment in the station area. Further analysis, grounded in a comprehensive dataset of land transactions, reveals that there has been no significant land price appreciation within the station area. This finding raises questions regarding the effectiveness of government-led new town development around the station area.