TY - JOUR
T1 - Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change
AU - Gudmundsson, Lukas
AU - Boulange, Julien
AU - Do, Hong X.
AU - Gosling, Simon N.
AU - Grillakis, Manolis G.
AU - Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.
AU - Leonard, Michael
AU - Liu, Junguo
AU - Schmied, Hannes Müller
AU - Papadimitriou, Lamprini
AU - Pokhrel, Yadu
AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I.
AU - Satoh, Yusuke
AU - Thiery, Wim
AU - Westra, Seth
AU - Zhang, Xuebin
AU - Zhao, Fang
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/3/12
Y1 - 2021/3/12
N2 - Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.
AB - Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85102417830
U2 - 10.1126/science.aba3996
DO - 10.1126/science.aba3996
M3 - 文章
C2 - 33707264
AN - SCOPUS:85102417830
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 371
SP - 1159
EP - 1162
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 6534
ER -
