Global health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions

Yanxu Zhang; Zhengcheng Song; Shaojian Huang; Peng Zhang; Yiming Peng; Peipei Wu; Jing Gu; Stephanie Dutkiewicz; Huanxin Zhang; Shiliang Wu; Feiyue Wang; Long Chen; Shuxiao Wang; Ping Li

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23391-7

Global health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions

Yanxu Zhang, Zhengcheng Song, Shaojian Huang, Peng Zhang, Yiming Peng, Peipei Wu, Jing Gu, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Huanxin Zhang, Shiliang Wu, Feiyue Wang, Long Chen, Shuxiao Wang, Ping Li

School of Geographic Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

166 Scopus citations

Abstract

Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017. Here, we report the development of a comprehensive climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk model framework for mercury and its application to project the health effects of future atmospheric emissions. Our results show that the accumulated health effects associated with mercury exposure during 2010–2050 are $19 (95% confidence interval: 4.7–54) trillion (2020 USD) realized to 2050 (3% discount rate) for the current policy scenario. Our results suggest a substantial increase in global human health cost if emission reduction actions are delayed. This comprehensive modeling approach provides a much-needed tool to help parties to evaluate the effectiveness of Hg emission controls as required by the Minamata Convention.

Original language	English
Article number	3035
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23391-7
State	Published - 1 Dec 2021

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title = "Global health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions",

abstract = "Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017. Here, we report the development of a comprehensive climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk model framework for mercury and its application to project the health effects of future atmospheric emissions. Our results show that the accumulated health effects associated with mercury exposure during 2010–2050 are \$19 (95\% confidence interval: 4.7–54) trillion (2020 USD) realized to 2050 (3\% discount rate) for the current policy scenario. Our results suggest a substantial increase in global human health cost if emission reduction actions are delayed. This comprehensive modeling approach provides a much-needed tool to help parties to evaluate the effectiveness of Hg emission controls as required by the Minamata Convention.",

author = "Yanxu Zhang and Zhengcheng Song and Shaojian Huang and Peng Zhang and Yiming Peng and Peipei Wu and Jing Gu and Stephanie Dutkiewicz and Huanxin Zhang and Shiliang Wu and Feiyue Wang and Long Chen and Shuxiao Wang and Ping Li",

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T1 - Global health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions

AU - Zhang, Yanxu

AU - Song, Zhengcheng

AU - Huang, Shaojian

AU - Zhang, Peng

AU - Peng, Yiming

AU - Wu, Peipei

AU - Gu, Jing

AU - Dutkiewicz, Stephanie

AU - Zhang, Huanxin

AU - Wu, Shiliang

AU - Wang, Feiyue

AU - Chen, Long

AU - Wang, Shuxiao

AU - Li, Ping

PY - 2021/12/1

Y1 - 2021/12/1

N2 - Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017. Here, we report the development of a comprehensive climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk model framework for mercury and its application to project the health effects of future atmospheric emissions. Our results show that the accumulated health effects associated with mercury exposure during 2010–2050 are $19 (95% confidence interval: 4.7–54) trillion (2020 USD) realized to 2050 (3% discount rate) for the current policy scenario. Our results suggest a substantial increase in global human health cost if emission reduction actions are delayed. This comprehensive modeling approach provides a much-needed tool to help parties to evaluate the effectiveness of Hg emission controls as required by the Minamata Convention.

AB - Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017. Here, we report the development of a comprehensive climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk model framework for mercury and its application to project the health effects of future atmospheric emissions. Our results show that the accumulated health effects associated with mercury exposure during 2010–2050 are $19 (95% confidence interval: 4.7–54) trillion (2020 USD) realized to 2050 (3% discount rate) for the current policy scenario. Our results suggest a substantial increase in global human health cost if emission reduction actions are delayed. This comprehensive modeling approach provides a much-needed tool to help parties to evaluate the effectiveness of Hg emission controls as required by the Minamata Convention.

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DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-23391-7

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AN - SCOPUS:85106600160

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

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M1 - 3035

ER -

Global health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions

Abstract

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