Exploring how the quality of technological innovation affects carbon emissions

Technological innovation quality significantly impacts carbon emissions, yet existing research often overlooks its importance, focusing instead on innovation quantity. This article explores how technological innovation quality affects carbon emissions in China using panel data from 30 provinces between 2000 and 2017. Global Moran’s I reveals that carbon emissions and technological innovation quality exhibit positive spatial autocorrelations. A spatial econometric model and two-step moderating effect testing model show that an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between them. The industrial structure upgrading can positively regulate the relationship between the two. High-level industrial structure upgrading can more effectively use technological innovation to reduce carbon emissions. Conversely, although energy efficiency can also positively regulate the relationship between the two, the relationship between technological innovation quality and carbon emissions is not significant at high level of energy efficiency, while at low levels, it maintains an inverted U-shape. In addition, the heterogeneity shows that only green technological innovation quality has a significant spatial spillover effect. Regionally, improvements in the eastern region directly reduce emissions without a transition stage. Therefore, the government should promote high-quality innovation and tailor policies to industrial upgrading and energy efficiency stages, and foster regional cooperation to maximize innovation spillovers and environmental benefits.