Building material stock drives embodied carbon emissions and risks future climate goals in China

Long-term effects of massive building material use in China, which experienced intense urbanization in the past two decades, remain insufficiently explored. Here, to fill these gaps, we developed a high-resolution time-series database of building material stocks from 2000 to 2019 and found that China held 15% of the global stock, which accounted for 19% of the country’s total carbon emissions. Although rapid urbanization generally increased per capita building material stock, the extent of this increase varied across cities and building types. We show that the growth rate has slowed since 2016; however, it remains challenging to simultaneously achieve both carbon-neutrality and urbanization goals. Future urbanization in China is projected to consume 12.5% of the nation’s total 1.5 °C carbon budget and 37.4% of its average annual budget allocation. Addressing these challenges requires targeted urban interventions, such as aligning low-carbon material production with projected regional demand and strategically planning materials recycling from future building demolitions.