Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Luke Grant; Inne Vanderkelen; Lukas Gudmundsson; Zeli Tan; Marjorie Perroud; Victor M. Stepanenko; Andrey V. Debolskiy; Bram Droppers; Annette B.G. Janssen; R. Iestyn Woolway; Margarita Choulga; Gianpaolo Balsamo; Georgiy Kirillin; Jacob Schewe; Fang Zhao; Iliusi Vega del Valle; Malgorzata Golub; Don Pierson; Rafael Marcé; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Wim Thiery

doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Luke Grant^*
, Inne Vanderkelen
, Lukas Gudmundsson
, Zeli Tan
, Marjorie Perroud
, Victor M. Stepanenko
, Andrey V. Debolskiy
, Bram Droppers
, Annette B.G. Janssen
, R. Iestyn Woolway
, Margarita Choulga
, Gianpaolo Balsamo
, Georgiy Kirillin
, Jacob Schewe
, Fang Zhao
, Iliusi Vega del Valle
, Malgorzata Golub
, Don Pierson
, Rafael Marcé
, Sonia I. Seneviratne

Wim Thiery

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Institute for Environmental Sciences
University of Geneva
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics
Russian Academy of Sciences
Wageningen University & Research
European Space Agency Climate Office
ECSAT
Research Department
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Department of Ecology and Genetics
Uppsala University
Catalan Institute for Water Research
University of Girona

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

204 Scopus citations

Abstract

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °C_air^–1, –0.033 m °C_air^–1 and –9.7 d °C_air^–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	849-854
Number of pages	6
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	14
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x
State	Published - Nov 2021
Externally published	Yes

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

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10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x

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Grant, L., Vanderkelen, I., Gudmundsson, L., Tan, Z., Perroud, M., Stepanenko, V. M., Debolskiy, A. V., Droppers, B., Janssen, A. B. G., Woolway, R. I., Choulga, M., Balsamo, G., Kirillin, G., Schewe, J., Zhao, F., del Valle, I. V., Golub, M., Pierson, D., Marcé, R., ... Thiery, W. (2021). Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing. Nature Geoscience, 14(11), 849-854. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x

@article{0bd3c10817a94c6eba7c23e50d2b9818,

title = "Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing",

abstract = "Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair{\textendash}1, {\textendash}0.033 m °Cair{\textendash}1 and {\textendash}9.7 d °Cair{\textendash}1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.",

author = "Luke Grant and Inne Vanderkelen and Lukas Gudmundsson and Zeli Tan and Marjorie Perroud and Stepanenko, \{Victor M.\} and Debolskiy, \{Andrey V.\} and Bram Droppers and Janssen, \{Annette B.G.\} and Woolway, \{R. Iestyn\} and Margarita Choulga and Gianpaolo Balsamo and Georgiy Kirillin and Jacob Schewe and Fang Zhao and \{del Valle\}, \{Iliusi Vega\} and Malgorzata Golub and Don Pierson and Rafael Marc{\'e} and Seneviratne, \{Sonia I.\} and Wim Thiery",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2021",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x",

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Grant, L, Vanderkelen, I, Gudmundsson, L, Tan, Z, Perroud, M, Stepanenko, VM, Debolskiy, AV, Droppers, B, Janssen, ABG, Woolway, RI, Choulga, M, Balsamo, G, Kirillin, G, Schewe, J, Zhao, F, del Valle, IV, Golub, M, Pierson, D, Marcé, R, Seneviratne, SI & Thiery, W 2021, 'Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing', Nature Geoscience, vol. 14, no. 11, pp. 849-854. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x

TY - JOUR

T1 - Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

AU - Grant, Luke

AU - Vanderkelen, Inne

AU - Gudmundsson, Lukas

AU - Tan, Zeli

AU - Perroud, Marjorie

AU - Stepanenko, Victor M.

AU - Debolskiy, Andrey V.

AU - Droppers, Bram

AU - Janssen, Annette B.G.

AU - Woolway, R. Iestyn

AU - Choulga, Margarita

AU - Balsamo, Gianpaolo

AU - Kirillin, Georgiy

AU - Schewe, Jacob

AU - Zhao, Fang

AU - del Valle, Iliusi Vega

AU - Golub, Malgorzata

AU - Pierson, Don

AU - Marcé, Rafael

AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I.

AU - Thiery, Wim

PY - 2021/11

Y1 - 2021/11

N2 - Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

AB - Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85117246836

U2 - 10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x

DO - 10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x

M3 - 文章

AN - SCOPUS:85117246836

SN - 1752-0894

VL - 14

SP - 849

EP - 854

JO - Nature Geoscience

JF - Nature Geoscience

IS - 11

ER -

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Abstract

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