Analyzing housing price volatility in Shanghai

Zhong Hua Huang, Ci Fang Wu, Xue Jun Du

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to explore the volatility of housing price in Shanghai. Past housing price growth, interest rate, and exchange rate growth were found out as the main factors to influence housing price growth. GARCH model and its expanded model, EGARCH and TGARCH, were employed. The main econometric results showed that: firstly, these explanatory variables could explain 70% variation of housing price growth; secondly, interest rate had negative impact on housing price growth, while past housing price growth and exchange rate growth had a positive effect; thirdly, unsymmetrical shock was tested to be existed, which showed that the response of housing price growth to positive shock was larger than to negative one; fourthly, macro control put forward since April 2005 did dampen the housing price growth of Shanghai in last half of 2005.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2008 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering 15th Annual Conference Proceedings, ICMSE
Pages1680-1686
Number of pages7
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008
Externally publishedYes
Event2008 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering 15th Annual Conference, ICMSE - Long Beach, CA, United States
Duration: 10 Sep 200812 Sep 2008

Publication series

Name2008 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering 15th Annual Conference Proceedings, ICMSE

Conference

Conference2008 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering 15th Annual Conference, ICMSE
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityLong Beach, CA
Period10/09/0812/09/08

Keywords

  • GARCH
  • Housing price growth
  • Interest rate
  • Shanghai
  • Volatility

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