Analysis of energy-related CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry

As one of the six highest energy-consuming industries, non-metallic mineral products industry accounts for 9.5% of national energy usage and 9.0% of energy-related CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emissions in China. In this paper, we evaluate the CO₂ emissions change from energy consumption and present a comprehensive picture of the underlying determinants of emissions change in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry for the period 1986-2010, based on the LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) method. Results demonstrate that industrial activity is the leading force explaining emission increase while energy intensity is the major contributor to the emission mitigation. Effects of industrial scale and carbon intensity of energy show varying trends interchanging intervals of growth along the study period. Moreover, substitution effect has a small negative impact on the increase of CO₂ emissions. Reduction potential of CO₂ emissions is predicted to be 99.02Mt in 2020 under the scenario of moderate emission reduction, which accounts for 0.30% of the world's energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2011; and 188.88Mt under the scenario of aggressive emission reduction, which accounts for 0.58% of the world's total in 2011 and is close to energy-related CO₂ emissions of Egypt in 2010. Policy recommendations are thus made for future emission reductions.