A Simple yet Scalable Granger Causal Structural Learning Approach for Topological Event Sequences

In modern telecommunication networks, faults manifest as alarms, generating thousands of events daily. Network operators need an efficient method to identify the root causes of these alarms to mitigate potential losses. This task is challenging due to the increasing scale of telecommunication networks and the interconnected nature of devices, where one fault can trigger a cascade of alarms across multiple devices within a topological network. Recent years have seen a growing focus on causal approaches to addressing this problem, emphasizing the importance of learning a Granger causal graph from topological event sequences. Such causal graphs delineate the relations among alarms and can significantly aid engineers in identifying and rectifying faults. However, existing methods either ignore the topological relationships among devices or suffer from relatively low scalability and efficiency, failing to deliver high-quality responses in a timely manner. To this end, this paper proposes S²GCSL, a simple yet scalable Granger causal structural learning approach for topological event sequences. S²GCSL utilizes a linear kernel to model activation interactions among various event types within a topological network, and employs gradient descent to efficiently optimize the likelihood function. Notably, it can seamlessly incorporate expert knowledge as constraints within the optimization process, which enhances the interpretability of the outcomes. Extensive experimental results on both large-scale synthetic and real-world problems verify the scalability and efficacy of S²GCSL.