1948-2018 年国际河流跨境水冲突的时空演化规律

With global climate change and the rapid development of human society and economy, the contradiction between water supply and demand has become increasingly prominent in recent years, and the freshwater conflicts in international river basins have intensified, which has aroused widespread concern in academia. Here we analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamics of global freshwater conflicts (GFCs) over the last 70 years from the "event-relations" perspective, and establish a spatio-temporal database of GFCs from 1948 to 2018 based on data mining method and spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) The evolution of GFCs is a non-monotonic dynamic process with multi-dimensional characteristics of trend, mutation and volatility. The GFCs showed a general trend of fluctuating growth, with an obvious sudden change around 1987. (2) The GFCs are mainly composed of low-intensity conflicts, and the hydrological intervention and contention for resource ownership are the focus of conflicts. The number of conflicts caused by the construction of dams and other water conservancy projects increases significantly. South Asia, West Asia and East Africa are the leading forces driving the evolution of GFCs. (3) The pattern of GFCs has changed from single-center to multi-center, and there is a clear trend of spatial spread. However, the overall distribution pattern with more conflicts in the northern and eastern hemispheres and the pattern with less conflicts in the southern and western hemispheres is relatively stable. Along 30-degree north latitude, a dense zone of freshwater conflicts covering high water stress basins in South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, and East Africa has formed. (4) International freshwater conflict has gradually become more ubiquitous, complicated and networked, and the basin communities of freshwater conflict network have increased significantly. But the "Matthew effect" of freshwater conflicts among countries are obvious, and its polarized distribution pattern is relatively stable. A "path-locking" effect has been formed among the major conflictive countries. There is a certain spatial mismatch between the quantity relationship and intensity relationship of GFCs.