长三角老年家庭空巢水平的空间特征及影响机制

As population aging intensifies in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD), the issue of empty-nest elderly households has become increasingly prominent, presenting significant challenges to regional demographic development, family structures, and socioeconomic stability. Based on census data of elderly households in the YRD from 2000 to 2020, we quantified empty-nest prevalence and map its spatial distribution, then applyed structural equation modeling (SEM) to identify the drivers of the spatial distribution of empty-nest. The study concludes that:① All three empty-nest types (overall, solitary, and couple) showed temporal increases but distinct spatial distributions. The spatial distribution of overall empty-nest prevalence has transitioned from a latitudinal gradient (higher in south) to a bimodal distribution (peaks in north and south, trough in center). The solitary empty-nest elderly households show a transition from high levels in the north and south to clusters of low values in the middle. The couple empty-nest elderly households have shifted from a central-low/peripheral-high spatial pattern to uniformly elevated levels across the entire region. ② The couple empty-nest elderly households have had a greater impact on empty nests over time, but the regional effects have varied widely, with Shanghai and Jiangsu always dominated by couple elderly households, Anhui shifted from couple elderly households to solitary elderly households. ③ The factors influencing the level of empty nests in elderly households can be categorized into two dimensions: endogenous and exogenous. Among the endogenous variables, population aging emerges as the pivotal factor, while among the exogenous variables, economic development exerts the strongest mediated effect through aging. Therefore, YRD urgently needs to strengthen the institutional framework for integrating elderly care services, enhancing multilateral, diversified, and multi-modal cooperation and resource sharing. This will facilitate the realization of the "Healthy Yangtze River Delta" policy objective and mitigate the socioeconomic challenges posed by the empty-nest elderly household phenomenon.