贵州县域人口收缩空间特征及影响因素的MGWR 探测

Nowadays, many countries and regions in the world have experienced the problem of population shrinkage brought about by the decline in permanent population. With the development of economic transformation and the construction of new-type urbanization, the urban-rural and inter-regional flow of population has accelerated, and the shrinkage of regional population has become a common problem. Based on this, this paper selects the population data of Guizhou counties from 2008 to 2017, using the annual average population change rate to measure the spatial trend of population shrinkage. A Multi-Scale Geographic Weighted Regression Model (MGWR) is chosen to explore the influencing factors of the characteristics of the population change in Guizhou counties. We have found that:(1) From 2008 to 2012, the population shrinkage of Guizhou counties increased significantly, especially in the western and southern regions. Between 2013 and 2017, the population shrinkage counties in Guizhou decreased sharply, and it was mainly concentrated in the severe rocky desertification area in the southwest. (2) From 2008 to 2017, the main types of population shrinkage in Guizhou counties were phased shrinkage, followed by continuous growth, while continuous contraction was the least prevalent. (3) Social economic and natural environmental factors have significantly different impact on the population shrinkage of Guizhou counties. The primary driving factor for population shrinkage in Guizhou counties is government fiscal expenditure, followed by topographical fluctuations. Factors such as the distance to prefecture-level cities and provincial capitals have a greater impact, while the proportion of non-rocky desertification areas, per capita GDP, and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries had a relatively smaller influence.