美国对外援助的时空演化及其驱动路径

Foreign aid is a tool of U.S. foreign policy and provides a window into U.S. national strategy. In the era marked by frequent local conflicts and global turmoil, delving the motives of U.S. aid can enhance our comprehension of U.S. national strategic objectives. Utilizing U.S. aid data from 2000 to 2019, this paper examines the spatial evolution patterns in U.S. aid and its driving paths, considering altruistic, egoistic, and utilitarian motives. This analysis is conducted using GIS spatial analysis and Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). The results show that: (1) Total U. S. aid exhibits a basic trend of initial growth followed by stabilization, with military security aid and economic development aid as the primary categories of U.S. aid. (2) There are significant spatial and temporal differences in the distribution of U.S. aid. The Middle East and North Africa region has been a long-standing aid priority but is trending downwards, with an emphasis on military security aid, economic development aid, and humanitarian assistance. Sub-Saharan African countries have emerged as new hubs for U.S. aid, with primary focuses on social sector aid, economic development aid, and humanitarian aid. Meanwhile, other regions have seen diminishing amounts of U.S. aid. (3) The key drivers of U.S. aid have expanded from the level of economic development and U.S. exports to geostrategic, political relations and institutional quality factors, with an overall trend of a gradual shift from being driven by economic interests to geopolitical interests. This may be related to the eastward shift of the U.S. strategic centre of gravity. In terms of specific types of aid, economic development aid, social sector aid and humanitarian aid are economic interest-driven, military security aid is geopolitical interest-driven, and democratic political aid is democratic value-driven. The different types of aid serve different foreign policy objectives and together constitute a tool for the U.S. to pursue its political and economic interests. This paper can provide some reference for China's foreign policy making.