深度不确定性下的灾害风险稳健决策方法评述^∗

Due to the coupling of future climate change and urbanization，extreme climate events will occur frequently，and the risk of compound flooding faced by coastal megacities continues to increase. Based on robust decision-making methods，evaluate the performance and economic benefit of potential future adaptation measures，and propose an implementation path for adaptation risks，which can effectively manage extreme disaster events，reduce disaster risks，and enhance urban resilience. This sudy first analyzes the theoretical basis of international robust decision-making methods for dealing with deep uncertainty，and secondly reviews the robust decision-making and multi-objective robust decision-making，dynamic adaptive planning，adaptive strategy pathway，dynamic adaptive policy pathway and real option analysis，and approaches that are widely used in the field of disaster risk. The six robust decision-making methods of dynamic adaptive policy pathways are compared and analyzed. Finally，we propose the advantages of integrating robust decision-making and dynamic adaptive policy pathway in the future，and also using many objective robust decision making to solve multi-objective problems and weigh multi-objective decision-making. In addition，real option analysis can quantify the timing of investment decisions for adaptation measures. These robust decision-making methods all provide methods and tools for solving deep uncertainty，reducing disaster risks，and formulating strategies to adapt to climate change.