改革开放以来中国区域城镇化格局及演化机制

Using the Mann-Kendall method, the growth rate of China’s urbanization since the reform and opening up was divided into 2 stages, 1978 —1994 and 1995 —2020, and the pattern of China’s provincial urbanization in different stages was analyzed. Using panel data, the dynamic mechanism of this pattern was discussed from the intra-regional and inter-regional levels. The results show that: 1) The spatial and temporal dynamic differences of China’s provincial urbanization are significant. In 1978, China’s regional urbanization pattern showed a pattern of high in the north and low in the south, and high in the east and low in the west. In 1994, the pattern of urbanization presented the urbanization rate of the provinces in the north and southeast coasts is relatively high, and southwestern provinces are relatively low. The urbanization level in 2020 has formed a pattern of gradual decline from east to west. 2) The estimation results of spatial Durbin model show that labor demand as a pulling force has a stronger effect on the urbanization rate between regions than within regions; The effect of the income gap between urban and rural areas on urbanization rate is firstly suppressed and then promoted, and the intensity of the effect between regions is always stronger than that within regions. The regional economic development disparities, acting as an inter-regional push factor, have a significant positive effect on urbanization only in the initial phase; the income gap between urban areas, serving as an inter-regional pull factor, overall shows an effect that initially suppresses and then promotes urbanization rates, with the impact shifting from being stronger inter-regionally to being stronger intra-regionally. 3) The results of Geographically Weighted Regression model show that, in economically developed regions, labor demand and urban-rural income gap, as regional push and pull forces, have a positive driving effect on the urbanization of each province. The positive effect of regional economic development differences and inter-regional urban income gaps on urbanization has obvious fluctuations in space. But the change has become stronger over time, indicating that the development gaps between regions and between urban and rural areas are constantly promoting the urbanization development of various provinces as a push and pull force between regions.