“心脏地带”理论与俄乌冲突

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is widely regarded as one of the most serious geopolitical crises in Europe after the Cold War. It not only caused a large number of casualties in both countries but also affected the whole world, causing complex games among China, the U. S., Europe and Russia, promoting the world's political and economic division and accelerating the deglobalization. Therefore, it may become a watershed in the evolution of the global power pattern after the Cold War. In this context, it is increasingly necessary and urgent to comprehensively analyze and judge the realistic nature and development trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Napoleon Bonaparte once said that the political nature of all power is embedded in its geographical location. This paper uses the classical geopolitical theory—Halford Mackinder's Heartland theory to analyze the geographical dynamic mechanism and temporal- Spatial patterns of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, to help understand the geopolitical security risks and challenges faced by China in the complex situation. Based on reviewing the core content of Mackinder's Heartland theory, this paper examines the influence of Heartland theory on the geopolitical thought and strategic practice of Russia and the U. S. . Finally, it analyzes the particularity of Ukraine's geographical position in the Heartland and its encounter and situation in the East-West powers game. This paper points out that, on the surface, the Russia-Ukraine conflict took place between the two East Slavic countries with significant differences over historical issues. However, its essence is the general outbreak of structural contradictions formed by the long-term confrontation between Russia and NATO. It results from squeesing and collision with each other between the two geopolitical plates of the land power in the Heartland and the sea power in the Rimland. Ukraine, located at the junction of the Heartland and the Rimland, has thus fallen victim to the geopolitical struggle of the great powers.