大国竞争视角下的区域投资风险评估——以东南亚地区为例

Investment is an important way for regions to optimize their economic structure and participate in globalization. With the evolution of the world's political and economic environment, investment has become an important link to national competition. Including a big power game element is logical to identify investment risks. Simultaneously, in the context of the increasing scale of China's outbound investment, research on investment risk has focused more on identifying the host country's investment environment. In contrast, the impact of significant country-specific competition factors on national investment has yet to be explored. Given this background, this paper adds the concept of geopotential with space power as a measurement factor to the traditional investment environment risk evaluation and establishes a regionally integrated investment risk identification model from the perspective of great power competition. Taking Southeast Asia as an example, we measure the basic investment environment risks of Southeast Asian countries and changes in the geopolitical positions of China and the United States in Southeast Asia. Based on the above, we identify changes in China's investment risks in Southeast Asia in the competition between China and the United States. The results show the following: 1) The basic investment environment risks of Southeast Asian countries show apparent spatial heterogeneity, and the spatial structure is high in the north and low in the south, with Singapore and Malaysia as stable low-risk areas and Myanmar and Laos as stable high-risk areas. 2) The geopolitical positions of China and the United States from 2010 to 2019 show significant regional heterogeneity. The United States has geopolitical advantages in most regions; however, the gap between China and the United States has gradually narrowed. China's geopolitical positions in Myanmar and Laos are ahead of those in the United States. Moreover, the geopolitical positions of China and the United States in Vietnam and Cambodia show intertwined changes. The geopolitical positions of China and the United States in Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Thailand show a parallel evolution. 3) Significant interregional differences in integrated risks based on geographical potential and basic investment environment risks were observed. The spatial distributions of high- and low-integrated risk areas are stable, with Thailand and the Philippines as stable high-risk areas, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam as stable low-risk areas, and medium-integrated risk areas showing expansion to the south of the region. 4) According to kernel density estimation, the spatial gap between China's integrated investment risks in Southeast Asia is narrowing, and a non-polarized development of evolutionary characteristics is observed.