多灾种综合风险评估理论与方法

In the context of climate change, economic globalization and rapid urbanization, the multi-hazard risk has become a major threat to human society. Risk assessment is the foundation of risk prevention. Based on an in-depth examination of literature, this paper summarizes the theories and methodologies for assessing multi-hazard risk in the past two decades. The comprehensive risk assessment has two significant theory foundations: the conceptual models which indicate the combination way of multi-hazards and the risk frameworks which describe the risk elements and their relationships as well as developing the assessment models. The key to multi-hazard risk assessment is the integration of single hazard risk, and the method for integration can be classified to two categories: integration of risk values and integration of hazard processes. It deserves closer attention to investigate both the complex relationship between various disasters and risk elements as well as the complex impact of environmental changes on disaster risk. The scenario-based modeling and risk assessing method may be a better choice for meeting the demands of the current era. It is feasible to take the single hazard risk analysis as a starting point, the interrelationships between various hazards as traction, and the scenario analysis method as a propellant to implement multi-hazards risk assessment.