基于FLUS-InVEST模型的中国未来土地利用变化及其对碳储量影响的模拟

The dynamics of terrestrial carbon are a key factor driving climate change and are greatly influenced by terrestrial processes. Land-use changes as a specific terrestrial process extensively influence terrestrial carbon storage through the alteration of biomass and soil organic matters. However, the direct effect of future land-use changes on terrestrial carbon storage is limited by the refinement of future land-use simulation. In this paper, we propose a FLUS-InVEST (future land use simulation-Integrate valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs) model to assess the impact of projected land-use change on terrestrial carbon storage in China. The FLUS-InVEST model is composed of fine land-use projection and terrestrial carbon change detecting. Based on the representative showed that: 1) the area with deceased carbon storage shifts from North China to Northeast and the area with increased concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, we projected a future land-use change with 30 m resolution for 2100 in China and simulated the changing in terrestrial carbon storage. The FLUS results had a Kappa value of 0.74 and an overall accuracy with 0.80, which indicated that the FLUS performed well in fine land-use projection on a national scale. In addition, carbon storage shifted from Northwest to Southwest between 1995 and 2010. 2) In the RCPs scenario, carbon storage in the forests continues to increase, but decreased in grassland. Specifically, the carbon storage in ?he forest was predicted to increase by 2 332.64 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 g) and 1 754.59 Tg in RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The carbon storage in grassland was predicted to decrease by 1 719.03 Tg and 2 468.80 Tg in RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. 3) In RCP 6.0, the carbon stored in aboveground vegetation and soil was projected to increase by 127.12 and 83.67 Tg. Conversely, the carbon stored in RCP 8.5 was projected to decrease by 24.67 Tg and 32.41 Tg in aboveground vegetation and soil, respectively, which indicated that RCP 6.0 contributes more to the future carbon sink than RCP 8.5. 4) In the RCPs scenario, the area with increased carbon was mainly located in lines of Hengduan-Qinling-Taihang-Great Khingan and Xufeng-Taihang-Great Khingant, and the area with decreased carbon was distributed throughout the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Sichuan Basin, and Beijing-Tianjing-Hebei Region.