基于 PLUS 模型的河南省“三生空间”多情景模拟及生态环境效应分析

Considering Henan Province as the research area, based on land use data with a resolution of 30 m in 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the distribution of the production-living-ecological space and the quality of the ecological environment in Henan Province using land transfer matrices and an eco-environmental effect model. Furthermore, based on 2020 land use data, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use data for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 under three scenarios:natural development, production priority, and ecological priority. Finally, we calculated the ecological environment quality index and ecological contribution rate. The results showed that: ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of production space decreased by 4 879 km², the area of living space increased by 19%, and the area of ecological space increased by 1.9%. ② From 2000 to 2020, the eco-environmental quality index increased from 0.364 6 in 2000 to 0.366 5 in 2010 and then decreased to 0.365 7 in 2020, which was at a medium level. ③ From 2030 to 2050, the distribution of production-living-ecological space will remain unchanged, and the trend under the natural development and ecological priority scenarios will remain unchanged. ④ From 2020 to 2050, Henan Province had the best ecological environment under the ecological priority scenario, and the ecological environment quality index was predicted to be 0.365 7 in 2030, 0.366 0 in 2040, and 0.366 5 in 2050. The distribution of production-living-ecological space is of great importance for the future development of the earth’s space and the construction of an ecological environment.