城市级新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情预测和仿真模型

It is important for social public security and urban management to explore the spread of infectious diseases. A city-level structured prediction and simulation model for COVID-19 is proposed. This model is consisted of SEIR and social network model on the basis of latest infectious disease dynamics theory and real geographic networks. The prediction region is divided into multiple levels. Specifically, a bipartite network is applied to simulate the relationship between public facilities and community nodes at the macro level, and a modified SEIR is applied to simulate the infection within nodes at the micro level. Besides, intelligent agent is applied to track the individual transmission process. The contrast experimental results based on the confirmed and cursed cases of Wuhan and Beijing in 2020 published by National Health Commission, show that the proposed model has better flexibility and higher accuracy, and reflects the distribution and movement of people more directly.