南海周边航运网络脆弱性及对中国集装箱运输的影响

The dependence on the South China Sea for international trade in container transport has increased over time, with Asian foreign trade relying on the South China Sea transport corridor for 65% of all trade. Hence, accurate measurement of the vulnerability of ports in the South China Sea and assessment of the impact of port inoperability in the ASEAN region on different Chinese ports is necessary for China's shipping security assessment. This paper collects the container route data published by the shipping company network in 2018 to construct the container shipping network of ports around the South China Sea, and carries out the research on the vulnerability of the network and the evaluation of the impact on China through the methods of network node index and shortest path simulation. The conclusions of the study are as follows: South Sea shipping is weakly resilient to disruption. The failure of 15%-25% of the head ports would be a materially disruptive effect on the overall organization of the shipping network. Pusan and Singapore are the ports in need of priority protection in the region, while Haiphong, Shanghai, Qingdao, Tokyo, Surabaya, Yokohama, and Kobe are highly vulnerable in the region. When a hub port breaks down and stops running to handle cargo, there are few alternative ports that meet the three conditions of geographical proximity, betweenness centrality growth, and the same transport capacity. The shortest path is used to simulate Chinese port calls to ASEAN ports in the South China Sea corridor. Singapore and Port Klang were found to be the two major ports with a global influence on China's coastal ports. Laem Chabang, Manila, Cebu, San Fernando, and Haiphong have regional impacts. By assessing the vulnerability of ports in the South China Sea and trying to delineate the spatial extent of the impact of port failures, this paper complements the spatial study of vulnerability and makes suggestions and recommendations for the security strategy of shipping in the South China Sea.