全球抗病毒药品贸易格局演化及其对新冠肺炎疫情防控的启示

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world. The key to combating the epidemic is the international cooperation especially to the maintenance of normal and circulating trade for essential drug in the field of health. However, the increasing number of export prohibitions and limits during the epidemic have changed the previous global drug trade. The interdependent relationship in the global antiviral drug trade has been portrayed more and more clearly. This paper analyzed the 2000- 2018 global spatio- temporal evolution characteristics of the antiviral drug trade pattern, discussed the product structure and the status change of countries (regions) in the global antiviral drug trade system, and especially revealed the interdependence between China and other countries (regions). The following conclusions were drawn. Firstly, in terms of industrial structure, the global trade system dominated by vaccine products is evolving to be dominated by vaccines and antibiotics. Both drugs are mainly exported to the developed countries like Europe and the US. China mainly exports antibiotics. Secondly, in terms of topology, the global antiviral drug trading network has the typical characteristics of "core-edge" and a small world network. The core of the network has gradually shifted from the United States to Western European countries. Besides, the network communities have gradually gathered, China has gradually separated from American communities and moved closer to Western European communities represented by Germany and Belgium and China's position in the network has become increasingly important. Thirdly, in terms of spatial structure, the global import and export trade of antiviral drug has gradually shifted from decentralization to concentration, forming a global antiviral drug trade system dominated by Europe with the decline of the United States and the rise of the Asian region. Finally, the global trade in antiviral drug has highly overlapped import and export markets. The interdependence between China and developed countries (regions) is gradually deepening, while that between China and countries (regions) along the Belt and Road is relatively low.