全球军事科技贸易网络空间格局演化及影响因素

Changes in global military technological strength will reshape the world pattern and thus affect the trend of the international situation. Accurately grasping the evolution of the world's military technological pattern is of great practical significance for a profound understanding and effective response to the great changes unseen in a century. As arms are products that reflect military science and technology, this article uses SIPRI arms trade data and the World Bank database to investigate the evolution of the spatial and temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of global arms trade from three aspects: product structure, network pattern and influence mechanism, and finds that: (1) the scale of global arms trade shows a fluctuating upward trend, the structure of trade products is dominated by aircraft with other major products including naval ships and weapons, missiles and armored vehicles. Aircrafts are the main export products or import- dependent products of most countries. (2) The global arms export pattern is characterized by the tripolar distribution of the United States, Russia and Western Europe. The influence of Asian countries has increased significantly. The geo- military pattern has obvious characteristics of rising in the east and falling in the west, and rising in the south and falling in the north. Importing countries are concentrated in East Asia-Southeast Asia-South Asia- Middle East- Southern Europe- North Africa, and the spatial distribution pattern is consistent with Rimland theory of Nicholas John Spykma. (3) The global arms trade network is characterized by one superpower and multiple major powers. Eurasia has always been the main arena for global arms trade, and Asian countries have become an important force in reshaping the trade landscape. (4) The competition pattern of arms trade centered on the United States and Russia is highlighted. The flattening trend of the largest trade network in the United States reveals the improvement of the United States' leading ability and the decline of the sub-dominant countries in Western Europe. (5) The evolution of the global arms trade network is affected by the attributes and proximity of importing and exporting countries. History, language and economic proximity have positive effects on arms trade network, while geographical distance has negative effects on trade network. National development, level of science and technology, intensity of military spending, political stability, and resource endowment have varying degrees of influence on arms trade.