俄罗斯对外化石能源贸易的依赖和竞争格局演化

Russia plays an important role in the reshaping of the global energy landscape. Clarifying the spatial and temporal pattern evolution of Russia's foreign energy trade is of practical significance for China's energy policy making. Based on the global energy trade data from 2003 to 2021, the spatial distribution, interdependence pattern and competition situation of Russia's foreign energy trade are examined using the trade advantage model and the trade competition model. It is found that Russia's energy trade is highly sensitive to the international environment, with its main imports shifting from crude oil to natural gas, while its exports have always been dominated by crude oil. The sources of energy imports are highly concentrated in the countries around the Caspian Sea, and the concentration of imports fluctuates widely; the concentration of Russia's energy export market and the number of export destinations have increased steadily, with energy exports to China growing rapidly. In general, Russia's advantage in energy trade is declining, with its highly advantageous area moving from Central and Eastern Europe to North Africa, West Asia and other regions. Russia faces increasing competition for international energy exports, particularly in European and Asian markets. Its competitive relationship with Norway and Saudi Arabia is tending to ease, while competition with the United States and Australia has increased sharply.