中日韩-东盟国家间产业转移与海上运输增长格局研究

China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN have entered a new round of industrial transfer after 2008, and under the influence of this new trend, container logistics between China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN have entered a period of rapid adjustment. At present, container transportation is the main form of cross-border transportation. In view of the new development trend, the characteristics and effect mechanism of the changes in container logistics need to be further clarified. We focus on the impact of industrial transfer between China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN countries on container growth between 2009 and 2021, and analyze the Spatiotemporal matching of container growth with industrial relocation based on kernel density and shift-share methods. Based on OLS and PPML gravity model econometric regression methods are applied to measure the increase in value added of intermediate goods caused by industrial relocations driving container growth. The main results of the full paper are as follows: ① Increasing the value of intermediate products through industry transfer is a major contributor to the growth of current container routes. ②In terms of time, the industry transfer has a lagging effect on the growth of container routes. Industry transfer drives the production and export of intermediate goods, and the driving effect is greatest three years later. ③Spatially, there are spatial differences in the effects of the industry transfer on container growth. The industry transfer between Japan and ASEAN, China and ASEAN have a stronger driving effect on container growth, while South Korea and ASEAN have no significant effect. From the perspective of port geography, we suggest that Chinese ports and ASEAN countries can build a "double-loop" connectivity pattern and establish an antecedence zone in the South China Sea. This study can serve as a reference for the design of China's container transportation policy in East and Southeast Asia.